Home Lending and Economic Forecast for Southern Oregon

Despite the Bond Markets and all Capital Markets being closed on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, the rest of the week’s economic calendar is full:

Manufacturing strong? The week’s economic data kicks off on Tuesday with a manufacturing indicator from New York’s Empire State Index for January. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed Index for January will be released on Thursday. Last month, both reports reached their highest levels in months. Remember: The Stock Market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. However, the Bond market prefers a moderate growth environment that won’t generate inflationary pressures.
Speaking of inflation! We’ll see inflation reports on the wholesale level in the Producer Price Index on Wednesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index on Thursday. Inflation has remained tame and Bondholders will be closely watching these two indicators for any signs of an uptick.
Back on track this week? Initial Jobless Claims will be released as usual on Thursday. Last week’s number showed an uptick in claims and broke the recent trend of decreasing claims. However, the rise could have been due in part to layoffs of seasonal holiday workers. So the markets will be watching to see if this report gets back on track with the recent positive trend.
No place like home! Housing data in the form of Housing Starts, Building Permits and Existing Home Sales will all be reported this week. Housing continues to troll around low levels despite record low home loan rates.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.